March is going to be funky, especially after the weeks of stay-inside coldness. There is some welcome relief just over the horizon.
The Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service issued a thirty-day outlook for March, 2021. The following are key components that are relevant locally.
La Niña conditions in the Pacific will continue to influence the weather pattern across North America through the month causing more southwesterly -westerly flow than most of the country has seen in weeks.
Modeling suggests tropospheric heat-spikes into the stratosphere are likely to continue to be irregular through the first three weeks of March, resulting in a high potential for cold-outbreaks to rapidly develop.
The weird, or formally “anomalous,” temperature and precipitation patterns that have defined most of the winter to this point should “normalize” into a more stable traditional La Niña in the last week of March.
“Substantially below-normal snow cover and depth” indicates a high likelihood of above-normal temperatures for much of the central and upper Mississippi valley, the Great Lakes, and much of the East.
“Below-normal” precipitation is likely across the Great Plains. March is going to be pretty dry compared to years past. Significant rainfall is unlikely though sudden thunderstorms are still possible.
Conditions indicate a higher-than-average risk of fire. Unseasonable warmth and La Niña winds are likely to compound fire risk.
Historically March brings us an average daily high temperature ranging from 38° to 51°. The average daily low is expected to range between 18° to 29°. We typically receive between 1 to 3 inches of precipitation.
The length of day will increase by 1 hour and 34 minutes over the course of the month.
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